Alberta’s Quest for Self-Determination

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The Stay Free Alberta group alongside the Alberta Prosperity Project has successfully collected enough signatures for a referendum that will be held in October this year. The question on the ballot is “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?” To be clear, this is not a binding agreement that will automatically trigger secession from the Canadian government. Seceding from a recognised state is a long process that is filled with legal challenges and complex national security issues. Why the province of Alberta wants to go down this path and the possible consequences highlights the struggle for autonomy in independence movements.

Oil is a top export for Canada and the tar sands in Alberta play a significant role in the Canadian economy. The Athabasca oil sands has one of the largest oil deposits in the world, which means Albertans have huge bargaining power. Many residents of Alberta feel that they have been overlooked and taken advantage of by the Federal government in Ottawa. Some of their grievances stem from agreements from the 1980s where the National Energy program instituted “capping domestic oil prices below world market rates and redirecting oil revenues to the federal government.” This led to a rising unemployment rate as well as economic losses in the oil industry. Climate policies have also impacted Alberta with the inclusion of carbon taxes and denying plans to build more pipelines. These issues are politically unpopular but one issue is particularly important. Canada’s equalisation program appears to be the most contentious. This program aims to address “fiscal disparities among provinces” where provinces do not directly pay into the program. Funding the program comes from the federal general revenues collected from taxpayers across all provinces. The chart below highlights which provinces receive the equalisation payments (red) and who is a contributor to the program:

The website DaveManuel.com has gone further in breaking down the numbers noting that Alberta does not receive funds from this program, while contributing an estimated C$85 billion dollars (16-17% of federal tax share) from 2007-2024. Justification for why some provinces received more funds than other provinces encompasses a wide range of factors, such as population and industry, but this issue may be useful for those who want to secede from the state.

After the Stay Free Alberta group successfully received 300,000 signatures for the petition, the secession movement has put Alberta’s Premier Danielle Smith in an awkward position. Her coalition includes a mix of conservative who want to leave as well as those who want to stay. Politico highlights her difficulties noting that she is “forced to publicly defend national unity while navigating concerns that some members of her own caucus sympathize with separatist sentiment.” The pro-secessionist group has also encountered legal trouble with First Nation Indigenous groups, whose lands overlap the province's boundaries. Treaty rights with the federal government are essential for the Cree and Dene Nations as these agreements were signed prior to Alberta becoming a province. This referendum demonstrates the need for autonomy inside a democratic state. When the people perceive that they are not properly represented or provided equal social services, self-determination seems to be a better option. Other referendums like recent ones in Scotland and Catalonia provide a blueprint that this will be an uphill battle for secessionist movements.