NATO Summit 2026: Winners and Losers

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The recent NATO summit in Ankara, Türkiye had a lot of ups and downs over the two days when leaders met on the 7th and 8th of July. There was a rocky start where President Trump made remarks saying “I just want to say there was tremendous love in that room,” at a news conference not long after he had said repeatedly that “I’m not happy with NATO.” It appears that he came to this conference unhappy with his fellow leaders as they were unwilling to provide the military support that Trump expected in the war with Iran. He also continued by saying “Spain is a terrible partner in NATO. They don’t participate. They don’t pay. I don’t want anything to do with Spain,” during a media appearance at the summit. Trump also reignited another sore spot with European sovereignty by suggesting that Denmark should give Greenland to the United States. He believes that “Denmark doesn’t spend money to really help Greenland, but it’s an important part for the US, and it’s surrounded by China ships and Russian ships.” Many analysts do not believe that Russia and China have ships stationed around the territory, but this continued threat makes other NATO countries very nervous that he continues to bring it up. To begin the NATO summit with this kind of energy is difficult for anyone, but luckily President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte understand how to keep Trump on their good side.

By the summit's close, the agenda appeared to have concentrated on NATO-related issues. One of the most pressing issues was the higher defense spending. European allies and Canada are now expected to invest some extra $258 billion in core defense spending across 2025 and 2026, though the increases remain uneven. The Baltic states are already nearing 5% of GDP, with Estonia and Lithuania’s defense ministers posing wearing “5% club” pins to tout their meeting of Trump's defense spending goal. Meanwhile France, Italy, Spain and the U.K. still face a steeper climb toward the 3.5% target by 2035. 

Other discussions during the summit included the six-point declaration to reaffirm Article 5 commitments, pledge at least $70 billion in support for Ukraine this year. It is important to note that Washington did not commit to contributing to this pledge, but Ukraine may receive an even bigger contribution by receiving a license to produce Patriot missiles in Ukraine. This is something that Kyiv has sought for a long time, especially since Russia has increased its attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets around the country.

For Türkiye, Trump also emphasized his interest to back a controversial sale of F-35 fighter jets, which U.S. lawmakers warn would hand Russia knowledge of American systems. U.S. law bars the sale of F-35s to Turkey as long as they have or operate the S-400 long-range missiles, which American officials believe could passively scan the fighter jets and erode their stealth capabilities. The US Congress says America can provide Turkey with the F-35s only when the latter “no longer possesses” the Russian air defence batteries. Even so, the prospect of a breakthrough seems closer, despite the objections of Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, who warned that selling Turkey the jets would “destroy the power balance in the Middle East”.

By the end of the summit, tensions between Trump and other NATO leaders seemed to have settled down. For Spain, Trump remarked that “I did have issues, and I still do, but Spain came back all the way today. Spain was very generous today.” It is unclear what made him change his mind but he did say that Spain “honored a request for lots of payments.” For Türkiye, the hope for F-35s and wooing Trump is seen as a boost in their geopolitical diplomacy to advance themselves as a rising power. Greenland remains unresolved but a threat to another NATO ally continues to make Europe wary of the United States and the resolve to keep the alliance together.