Satellite Wars: Modern Warfare is Going Orbital

Photo Credit: AI

Earlier this month, a group of astronauts travelled around the moon for the first time in fifty years. Artemis II is considered a successful scientific mission and has increased the interest in space exploration once again. Americans and Canadians travelled to the dark side of the moon to learn more about the celestial body that orbits around the Earth. But there are thousands of satellites that orbit the Earth every single day that we think little about. Their impact has drastically changed our lives by beaming entertainment to our screens, helping us navigate through a new city, forecasting weather, and providing internet services to rural areas. The contribution of satellites has been instrumental in building military infrastructure for reconnaissance, early warning detection systems, and signals intelligence. Space is meant to be a neutral zone but during the Cold War, the USSR and the United States faced off in an intense race to control the outer edges of Earth. Today, we see a much more crowded space that includes nation states, regional blocs, and the private sector jockeying for power in the low orbit around the planet.

The United States has invested heavily in space exploration and leads the world in investing in space power through‭ investment, industrial base, science and technology, innovation ecosystem and operational‬‭ capabilities.‬‭ In‬‭ 2023,‬‭ the US‬‭ civil-military‬‭ space‬‭ budget‬‭ was‬‭ more‬‭ than‬‭ $50‬‭ billion,‬‭ with‬ $25.3‬‭ billion‬‭ allocated to the‬‭ National‬‭ Aeronautics‬‭ and‬‭ Space‬‭ Administration‬‭ (NASA)‬‭ and‬‭ $26.3‬‭ billion‬‭ for‬‭ the‬‭ US‬‭ Space‬‭ Force‬‭ (USSF).‬‭ This doesn’t even account for the other‬ lines of‬ space‬ spending, including through the National Reconnaissance‬‭ Office‬‭. This department runs‬‭ the‬‭ most‬‭ advanced‭ American‬‭ spy‬‭ satellites and the‬‭ total‬‭ amount of US‬‭ spending‬‭ in‬‭ this‬‭ domain‬‭ amounted‬‭ to‬‭ almost $73‬‭ billion‬‭ in‬‭ 2023, which is a‬‭ full‬‭ 63%‬‭ of‬‭ all‬‭ government‬‭ space‬ budgets‬‭ in‬‭ the‬‭ world.‬‭ The only country that comes close to America on its space program expenditure is China, who is rapidly increasing its activity in space from landing a rover on the Moon to launching satellites into geostationary orbit. The Economist reported that in late 2025, the Yaogan-41 satellite positioned itself 36,000km away from the Earth. The reasoning from “China says Yaogan-41 will be used for benign activities, such as estimating crop yields and meteorological forecasting. But it is positioned over an area that includes Taiwan, the South China Sea and other potential flashpoints.” The article also states that the “number of satellites it has in operation, to a total of over 600 today (see chart below). Of those, more than 360 are intelligence, surveillance or reconnaissance (ISR) satellites, which observe the Earth using sunlight, infrared waves or reflections from radar pulses.”

Infographic of China's Operational Satellites from 2010 to 2023

The appeal of the intelligence that is gathered from China’s satellite is so successful that the private groups have an interest as well. The United States recently sanctioned two Chinese firms for allegedly disseminating satellite imagery of Ukraine to the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company as well as the Houthi rebels in Yemen to target American vessels in the Red Sea. There is also reporting that China has provided satellite images of the Middle East during the current crisis between the US, Israel, and Iran. While the US has attempted to shut down open-source intelligence by cutting off journalists, researchers and activists, China has opened the flood gates proving how capable their satellites are functioning and offsetting themselves as the competition for the Americans.

Another group of actors who are becoming increasingly powerful in space are private companies, such as SpaceX and Globalstar. These two tech companies specialise in satellite communications, which has the ability to make a huge impact on the battlefield during major conflicts. Military leaders are dependent on these companies as they have built up a large network of satellites and defence departments are their number one customers. They are also largely dependent on the whims of the owner of the company to make decisions on whether or not that system is turned on. The most striking scenario of what these leaders feared the most played out when Elon Musk restricted Starlink access multiple times during the Russia-Ukraine war. There was also a time when he denied the Ukrainian military’s request to turn on Starlink near Crimea, the Russian-controlled territory, which affected their battlefield strategy. Nine countries, including in Europe and the Middle East, were so concerned about Elon Musk’s power over the technology that they brought up the issues with Starlink with American officials, two U.S. intelligence officials briefed on the discussions said. “Few nations will speak publicly about their concerns, for fear of alienating Mr. Musk”. Amazon is hoping with its $11 billion purchase of Globalstar to challenge SpaceX in the satellite race for communications supremacy via space. Starlink is already so pervasive with thousands of satellites in low-earth orbit and an underground smuggling network to infiltrate terminals to conflict zones. Having secure communications is absolutely crucial in modern warfare and who is in control will have a dramatic impact. Some government bodies are learning the hard way that foreign dependence on another country or a private company to ensure communications is a supply chain vulnerability.