Ceasefires and Negotiations in the Middle East

It has been quite the week since Donald Trump’s social media post issued on Easter morning. Many American conservative commentators that were supportive of his MAGA agenda believe that this pronouncement appears fairly unhinged.

Although, in Trump fashion and concerned for the stock market volatility, he followed his usual TACO decision-making process by announcing a ceasefire with the attacks on Iran. It is difficult to understand the full process that he follows to make these decisions but it does seem that this time around, Pakistan’s prime minister Shehbaz Sharif offered negotiation mediation support for a two week period to the US and Iran. Pakistan shares a long border with Iran as well as the Balochi ethnic group that has long desired to be out from under Tehran and Islamabad. Iran has less suspicions of Pakistan as it is one of the few countries in the region that does not host a US military base. For the United States, meeting in Islamabad sits well with Trump because Prime Minister Sharif was one of the few people who supported him in the nomination process of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025. 

Since the military strikes have ceased on Iran, the US is keen to clear out the entire nuclear program of Iran. This may have been one of the main objectives of this conflict, but many US officials have gone back and forth on what that looks like. The most pressing factor for the ceasefire was the need for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen and allow energy exports as well as other crucial resources to flow through to their intended destination. Iran has issued a 10-point plan to bring this conflict to a close:

• Fundamental commitment to non-aggression from the US.

• Controlled passage through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the Iranian armed forces, which would mean that Iran retains its leverage over the waterway.

• An acceptance of Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme.

• The lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions and resolutions against Iran.

• End of all resolutions against Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency.

• End of all resolutions against Iran by the United Nations Security Council.

• The withdrawal of US combat forces from all bases in the region.

• Full compensation for damages suffered by Iran during the war – to be secured through payments to Iran by ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

• The release of all Iranian assets and properties frozen abroad.

• The ratification of all these matters in a binding UNSC resolution.

One issue that seems to be missing from the ceasefire talks is Lebanon. Throughout this week’s ceasefire between the US and Iran, Israel has continued to attack Lebanon ruthlessly. There are some indications that Israel is willing to talk and an announcement of negotiations with Lebanon comes amid disagreement over whether the ceasefire deal should include a pause to the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, which came after a day of Israel pounding Beirut with airstrikes. 

As of the morning of 12 April 2026, an announcement from the United States stated: 

“Vice President JD Vance said on Sunday that 21 hours of peace talks in Pakistan, between the United States and Iran had failed to produce an agreement to end the war, leaving the question of what happens after the current two-week ceasefire up in the air. “They have chosen not to accept our terms,” 

Mr. Vance said in a brief news conference in Islamabad, though he left open the possibility that terms could still be reached. “We leave here with a very simple proposal: a method of understanding that is our final and best offer,” he added. “We’ll see if the Iranians accept it.”

Later in the day after negotiations did not reach a settlement, discussions regarding a naval blockade led by the United States might be an option if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Trump issued a statement via Truth Social that “Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!” Eloquent as ever, it will continue to be a wild ride.