Israel’s Upcoming Elections

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Israel’s Knesset voted on 20 May to dissolve the government earlier than expected as the government is required to hold an election this fall. Anyone who was paying attention to Israel’s government, prior to the 7 October attack, will have seen several elections in recent times. By 2022, Israel held five elections within four years and concerns for a stable democracy in an unstable region was concerning for many countries who have put considerable effort into the nation state. The world, as well as Israel, has completely changed since this election and it is important to examine the geopolitical impact the previous election has had, now that a new government may take its place. 

Binyamin Netanyahu has a fairly long history in politics, but for this analysis, the most important point to understand is his slow drift to right wing politics that clinched his successful return in 2022. He established his coalition with his own party, Likud, with an alliance of two religious ultranationalist parties called the Jewish Power and the Religious Zionism to form the third-largest bloc in the Knesset. This is a significant change in political ideology from the Likud party as it once banned a radical religious leader’s party named Kach from participating in parliament calling its views “racist and undemocratic”, when Likud would have benefited from a coalition by securing enough seats for a majority. Reservations of a coalition with ultranationalist and right-wing religious leaders no longer seem to be a concern for Netanyahu’s party in 2022. His most controversial ally is Itamar Ben-Gvir, who was previously convicted of incitement to racism and supporting a terrorist organization, deemed unable to serve in the Israeli army as he was considered a security threat, and considered the leader of Kach (the one Likud had banned) his hero, was appointed as minister of national security. Securing this coalition ensured the return of Netanyahu with a group who has grown in popularity due to its right-wing views as well as his own political survival.

Another political goal of the right-wing parties is to overhaul the justice system to give politicians more control over judicial appointments, which would weaken checks and balances on the politicians. This objective is most interesting to Netanyahu after his indictment of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust in 2019. This issue has yet to be resolved and Netanyahu has maintained that “the charges against him are trumped up, and fostered by unelected bureaucrats seeking to force him out of office against the will of the electorate.” The upcoming election will certainly impact how these charges will play out and Netanyahu’s political future. This alliance is also interested in accelerating Jewish settlements in the West Bank as well as removing any semblance of Palestinian autonomy or possibilities for Palestinian statehood. Most recently, the finance minister Bezalel Smotrich threatened to evict the residents of a small Bedouin village of an estimated 150 people called Khan al-Ahmar, which lies east of Jerusalem. It is reported that “(r)ight-wing Israeli leaders have long called to raze the town and expel its residents to make room for the expansion of Jewish settlements in the area.” Instances like this one against Palestinians is a particularly precarious issue in the West Bank as it strains Israel’s relations with its supporters and benefactors, especially those who have agreed to the Abraham Accords. This trend of joining forces with leaders of right-wing populism is not unheard of in the last ten years but the objectives of the Israeli ultranationalists and religious leaders in a volatile region have had devastating consequences. 

The current pressing issue that triggered the preliminary vote to dissolve the parliament relates to military service. Conscription is mandatory in Israel and The Economist explains here that 

“The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) is made up of professional officers and NCOS, conscripts (mainly 18-year-old Israeli men and women, who serve for at least 32 and 24 months respectively), and regular reservists who have military experience and although no longer in the forces can be called up until the age of 40.”

In 2024, this article further outlines that two laws were under review: The first is to extend conscription for males to three years and increase the call-up age for reservists to 45. The second would be to codify the exemption to draft young men from the Jewish ultra-Orthodox community, which has been in place since Israel’s foundation in 1948. The reason for these laws is due to the fall-out from the 7 October attack and the ensuing war on Gaza. Many Israeli citizens believe that conscription provides security for the state and that the burden to protect itself should be shouldered by all citizens. With support for the war dwindling and prolonged conflicts with Iran and Lebanon, many citizens in Israel believe that the “Haredim” receive special treatment when it comes to conscription, especially within this coalition government that includes influential ultra-orthodox parties. These laws remain contentious and it is the primary reason why a preliminary vote was held earlier this week, but many see this as the political partnership fracturing under the weight of too many promises to allies that Netanyahu was unable to fulfill. For the rest of the Middle East, the upcoming elections will have a dramatic impact of either solidifying Nethanyahu’s leadership or the possibility of significant changes by another Israeli Prime Minister.