China’s Influence over Myanmar

The 2021 Coup led by Myanmar’s military junta is a turning point for the country’s relations with China. The junta had ousted the democratically elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi that promised a better life for the citizens of Myanmar. Many South East Asian countries were benefitting from better relations with Western countries through trade and tourism, but all of that has been quashed by the junta. Without Western support to challenge the junta, the country is stuck in a state of war and fear. The conflict remains today at a stalemate and is often thought of as the forgotten war. With several ethnic rebel groups fighting against the junta, the country is a powderkeg for instability. At this point, China steps in to promote regional hegemony as well as protect its own interests.

On the international stage, China supports Myanmar’s military junta. The support includes arms supplies, economic investment and political backing, which may have upheld the regime to hold on to power amidst international isolation since the coup. Without China’s support, it does not seem likely that the junta would be able to support itself indefinitely. Although, there seems to be duality in how China is involved within the country. There also seems to be Chinese ties to the rebel groups that are fighting back against the regime. By playing both sides of this conflict, China is able to influence the country as well as prolong the conflict to ensure that the two sides do not join forces and look northeasterly for a new fight.

Sharing a long border, Myanmar and China have deep economic ties that is not only access to rare earth resources but also accessibility to alternative trade routes. A crucial geographic corridor from Yunnan Province to the Indian Ocean, which offers an alternative to the Malacca Strait, includes an oil and gas pipe line that supplies the southwest region of China. Without the need to travel through a heavily travelled chokepoint, keeping Burmese relations sweet between rebel groups and the national military is necessary for energy security. Myanmar is also endowed with rare earth resources that are critical for alternative energy and associated industries. The IEA has reported that China controls 90% of global rare earth processing capacity and much of its extraction is outsourced to Myanmar. This has raised a few eyebrows with other countries, such as the United States. In an attempt to win over Myanmar, the US has tried several ways to engage in access to the rare earth minerals. One attempt was tariffs, which includes a rate of 40%. Another attempt was when the “Department of the Treasury unexpectedly lifted sanctions on several Burmese entities, including known arms traffickers to the junta, who are still sanctioned by Canada and the United Kingdom.” With the United States so far away and China on its doorstep, it is hard to imagine that Myanmar will cut ties with their neighbour. China also has a lot invested in keeping the Burmese people in a state of forgotten conflict to maintain power in the region.