Is the UK Rejoing the EU?
Brexit feels like it happened a million years ago but it has only been ten. The results of leaving the European Union are complicated but it was always going to be difficult. There were years of discussions that included immigration, the economic impact, and overall sovereignty on a range of issues. While many of the logistical issues have been dealt with, many people in the UK are wondering if the break from the EU was worth it and if their lives have improved with the results. The economy moves slowly so the initial impact of Brexit were not immediately felt but all these years later, some believe it is time to rethink whether or not it is better to be inside the EU or restart discussions to return to the bloc.
During the UK Labour annual party conference in September, Prime Minister Andy Burnham raised the issue of Brexit indicating that the previous Conservative governments had not succeeded in establishing a sufficient Brexit deal. Burnham believes that he can improve the deal but also stated that this will be a long process that may last beyond the next election. Sending out feelers to UK citizens to determine if this is a popular stance cannot have come at a better time. The cost-of-living crisis is an incredibly popular topic with most British people but the geopolitics is certainly something worth examining.
Since leaving the European Union, the UK has had to reevaluate its security decisions due to the Trump Administration’s scepticism of NATO and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The British government is aligned with other European countries and through the E3 arrangement, https://ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/the-e3/ there is a space where the UK can discuss security with Germany and France. The problem is that the EU is currently working on the budget for 2028-2034. This does put the UK in a slight disadvantage as they are not in the room for these discussions. Once everything is decided and shaped by the European Commission, they will either have to get on board with whatever is decided by their closest allies or hope the United States will still align on security interests.
The most significant loss from Brexit is the free trade access to the EU marketplace. The Brexiteers advocating to leave the EU were very vocal about the regulations placed on UK industry. They stated that the agriculture, fisheries, and manufacturing regulations from the EU were hindering the UK’s growth so it would be more beneficial to develop trade relationships elsewhere. This video from the Economist explains that the economy was pretty much on the same level as the rest of the world due to competition with China and the always present energy costs, but other sectors like IT have been slightly more successful.
Redeveloping trade relationships with 27 other nation states but it is also important to remember that the trade deals with UK before Brexit were no good as well. That’s right, they had to start again from scratch with every country as they were no longer apart of the EU. This leverage is significant for nations seeking more favorable terms. However, an imbalanced agreement may result in excessive price increases, something neither side wants.
Bringing Brexit back on to the table is a risky option. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK led the Brexit campaign and heavily relies on the immigration issues that surround it. Conservatives were saddled with the Brexit issue for most of the time they were in charge of the UK Parliament. Smaller parties such as the Greens and Lib Dems have seen an increase in constituents believing Labour did not do enough to prevent Brexit. It Is still a coin flip on whether it is the right time for PM Burnham to bring up this issue though as “(57%) believing it to have been a mistake. But dislike of Brexit does not necessarily mean support for rejoining. Many citizens are just tired of the issue by now.” What is good news is that EU leaders have been very welcoming https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-and-sanchez-say-uk-would-be-welcome-back-in-eu/ of the idea for the United Kingdom to return to the bloc.
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