The Fight for the Arctic

Climate change is reshaping how goods are transported around the globe. With smaller ice caps in the Arctic, ships and tankers are able to navigate new routes. This scenario is especially helpful to the northernmost territories who want to find faster maritime routes. Access to the Arctic has other benefits too so it is important to understand what is at stake when it comes to having control over strategic territories. In the last year, there has been a lot of discussion over controlling Greenland. At this time, Greenland is a territory that has internal self-determination with the right of the people within the state to pursue their political, economic, social, and cultural development autonomously. While the territory governs its own domestic affairs, decisions on foreign and defence policy are made by Denmark. Having the protection of the Danes is important to both parties. For Denmark, access to resources, trade routes, and economic zones can drive geopolitical interests and conflicts. For Greenland, their relationship provides military security via NATO. This relationship was tested recently during the elections in March of 2025 by reinforcing the goal of independence in the future, although Greenlanders are more interested in solving social issues in the near future. The questions surrounding the Arctic are complicated and becoming a hot topic for discussion with western governments, especially those who are long-standing allies.

President Trump believes that the United States should control Greenland due to Russian and Chinese threats in the Arctic region. While travelling with reporters on Air Force One, he stated that “Right now, Greenland is covered with Russian and Chinese ships all over the place. We need Greenland from the standpoint of national security.” According to other sources, like MarineTraffic, there does not seem to be an over abundance of vessels from China or Russia. European countries are wary of this statement as they are learning lessons from the Venezuelan invasion, which was initially about drug trafficking but afterwards it became a more singular issue regarding natural resources. Still, Russia is eager to explore the Arctic for alternative shipping lanes to deliver oil and gas to China, due to European Union and U.S. sanctions. As for China, they have sent numerous expeditions to the Arctic including comprehensive marine environmental surveys, support for deep-sea diving operations, and carried out multidisciplinary studies along the ice edge. The rush to explore the Arctic for natural resources is becoming a power struggle over the region.

Greenland’s long-standing relationship has put European politicians in an awkward position. Many EU leaders have tried to appease the Trump administration over the past year with his many whims on foreign policy. The most pressing issue is what happens if a member of NATO has a military intervention on another member’s territory? Since the U.S. president is reluctant to rule out military force to take Greenland, European members of NATO are concerned about the treaty’s future. Although, the EU does take the defence of Greenland seriously and are in agreement to fortify its security. The European Commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius ⁠Kubilius said that the EU and NATO are ready to do more for Greenland's defense and “could provide more security for Greenland, including troops and military infrastructure such as warships and anti-drone capabilities.” The EU has also followed up the statement with sending small contingents on limited deployment to Greenland involving Germany, Sweden, Norway, Finland, the Netherlands and the UK military forces. In Trump-like fashion using the only tool at his disposal, he has announced in a social media post, that Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, Britain, the Netherlands and Finland will be hit with a 10 percent tariff on all goods sent to the United States beginning on Feb. 1. If these countries do not relent on his pursuit for the territory, he added that the tariff rate will increase to 25 percent on June 1, “until such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland.” The future of the Arctic is in a precarious state with so many nations involved with its outcome. Allies and foes are struggling for control of the region and its outcome will directly impact military alliances.