The Long Road to Recognition for Somaliland

In 1991, the Somali National Movement declared autonomy over Somaliland, which is located in the northern area in the Horn of Africa. The strategic location of this territory is especially significant to maintain sovereignty for the recognised government of Somalia. After many years of democratic unrecognised governance, Somaliland is receiving attention from significant powers throughout the region. Earlier this week, major headlines from news sites announced that Israel has formally recognised Somaliland as a state. What it means in the long term can have endless repercussions for the region.

Unrecognised states live in limbo. It is difficult to establish relationships with other countries as they are unwilling or do not want to anger the recognised state. Nina Caspersen in her book, Unrecognized States: The Struggle for Sovereignty in the Modern International System, wrote the following:

“Unrecognized states may face a degree of international isolation but are at the same time dependent on external forces for their survival: they rely on support from external patrons, diaspora populations, and other transborder linkages, and have sometimes even established limited relations with their parent states.”

Throughout the 1990s, Somaliland’s isolation was significant even though they were a great example for a developing democratic state with presidential, parliamentary, and district level elections. Western powers certainly had their hands full with other countries breaking away from the Soviet Union and the break up of Yugoslavia, but the location of Somaliland is critical and many states forgot about its significance.

When looking at the Horn of Africa, Somaliland follows the coastline of the Bab el Mandeb, through to the Red Sea and Suez Canal towards the north, and the Gulf of Aden to the east. This shoreline gives the region access to the most important trade route in the world and a definitive choke point. As for the land territory, it is surrounded by Djibouti and Ethiopia. All of these geographic locations have an impact on Somaliland in its recent history. The maritime trade route is important for several reasons. Most of the world’s trade travels through this chokepoint, something that the Yemeni Houthis exploit for their advantag. As for their neighbours, Ethiopia extended a memorandum of understanding to the Somaliland government in return for access to the critical sea route. The United Arab Emirates has invested significantly in the Berbera port, managed by DP World, creating tensions between the UAE and Somalia. The geoeconomic significance of Somaliland is crucial for their trade relations to ensure economic security but the need for military security is increasing as well. 

Djibouti is known mostly for its diverse international military bases but several countries have become wary of the neighbouring bases. With China’s growing influence on the region, some military bases are concerned with how congested Djibouti has become for western powers in the country. Somaliland offers more breathing room, specifically for the U.S., in the same region. There is also the added bonus that China is as unlikely to recognise Somaliland as it is Taiwan, so there is less possibility of encroachment of a new military base. This is certainly something that U.S. Republicans of Congress are aware of and have introduced a bill in the House for this purpose. The Heritage Foundation’s “Project 2025” outlined it specifically here:

“the recognition of Somaliland statehood as a hedge against the U.S.’s deteriorating position in Djibouti; and a focus on supporting American companies involved in industries important to U.S. national interests or that have a competitive advantage in Africa.”

Having the United States’ tacit support would be a boon for Somalilanders, but there has not been official recognition from any nation state until Israel’s announcement. Many countries and political blocs have denounced state recognition for Somaliland and are committed to the sovereignty of Somalia. Regional stability is the key driver to keep Somalia as one country but as a failed state that is unable to maintain security for its population, the need for regional assistance is more important than ever. With Israel’s recognition, attention from violent non-state actors, such as Al-Shabaab and the Houthis, will likely shift its focus on Somaliland for choosing such a controversial partner. After so many years of building democratic institutions and economic trade relations, Somalilanders would like to celebrate their newfound recognition in hopes of becoming a full member of the United Nations. The ripple effects could be catastrophic for the region by choosing the wrong patron state, especially one that refuses to recognise a fellow Muslim territory.