The Russian Influence in Georgia: After One Year, What Happened?

Introduction:

In October 2024, the contested legislative elections led the pro-Russian party Georgian Dream in power, which appointed later in November a new president, Mikheïl Kevalachvili. The former president, Salomé Zourabichvili, refused to leave her seat, stating that there is a clear irregularity in the vote count, and, along with other members of the opposition, claiming Georgian dream to be a pro-Russian party. At the end of 2024, the prime minister Irakli Kobakhidze suspended the process of European integration the country was a part of, starting a wave of demonstrations. Since then, thousands of Georgian citizens took to the streets to protest against what they see as a return to authoritarianism and Russian interference in Georgia, waving Georgian and European flags. 

During the past year, Georgians protested almost every day in sign of contestation of the power in place, who have reinforced restrictive measures against the protesters, as well as freedom in the country. More recently, the president requested the prohibition of the three main opposition parties, therefore pursuing a shift towards authoritarianism in Georgia. Furthermore, the “Russian law”, or law on foreign agents, passed earlier in 2024, restrained even more freedoms in Georgia. These laws target NGOs (Non-Governmental Organisations) and independent media organisations that receive more than 20% of their funding from foreign donors, which covers most of the monetary funding for NGOs and independent medias in Georgia. 

Why would Russia influence Georgia?

First of all, the Kremlin’s politics on what is called it’s “near abroad”, in other terms its sphere of influence, has always been proactive. From central Asia to Europe, Putin is known to lead wars in what can be seen as an 'imperialist will' to return to the old Soviet Union. Several examples include Transnistria in 1992, Chechnya in 1999, Georgia in 2008, Crimea in 2014 and finally Ukraine in 2022, where Russia has maintained a clear stance on what it considers its exclusive zone of influence. When it comes to Georgia, the actions led are not only imperialist, but follow a particular strategy to maintain the Caucasus within its sphere of influence, and away of Western partners. 

With the Georgian Dream in power, and its unofficial leader, the Georgian oligarch Bidzina Ivanichvili, the Kremlin has the capacity to influence directly the Georgian politics from the inside. Therefore, Russian influence can prevent the ruling party in Georgia from reinforcing its ties to the EU, which is evident as the EU integration process has been stalled indefinitely. Moreover, the party enables Russia to reinforce its influence in the Caucasus, thus disabling potential projects to make of Georgia a great economic hub in the Black Sea between Europe and Asia. 

Russian influence takes multiple forms and through legislative power in conjunction with the pro-Russian government party, the ability to drive internal policies towards closer ties to Russia reinforces those policies. When it comes to economic influence, Georgia remains partly dependent on Russia, particularly since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. And finally, through its military influence, the Kremlin still maintains a grip on two contested territories by occupying Abkhazia and South Ossetia. 

What’s at stake for Georgia and the region?

Georgia is at the crossroads of central Asia and Europe and is strategically placed as a corridor for energy and raw materials transiting from one region to another. The Anaklia project, launched with European and American partners in 2022 along the Black Sea, to create the first deep seaport in Georgia, and an alternative trade routes between central Asia and Europe, was stalled and lacked support from the government. This port initiative has the potential to compete with the Russian port of Novorossiysk, but it appears that Moscow has interfered with Georgia's project. By the end of 2024, machinery intended to build the seaport was spotted on the site, as Chinese investments restarted the process, which marks a shift from the government to reinforce its partnerships with “anti-Western” powers. It further entrenches Georgia within the Russian influence, disabling Western backed projects in favour of Russia’s allies’ project.

At the same time, in occupied Abkhazia, Russia has built a military port, meant to reinforce Moscow’s presence in the Black Sea, and clearly denying Georgia the legitimate control of the occupied territories. The Kremlin holds a particular grip on Georgia through the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, directly pressuring the government to favour deescalation and increase Russia’s influence, preventing Tbilisi from entering in deeper cooperation with Western powers.  

Russian influence in Georgia is undeniable as the major power appears to directly interfere with the independence of the country and continues to deny the possibility for Tbilisi to reinforce its own economy, and its importance as a central economic hub between Europe and Asia. It could be seen as well that Russia tries to maintain this grip over the Caucasus as most of the resources coming from central Asia towards Europe are still transiting through Russian infrastructures. Therefore, the control over the Caucasus further implies the reinforcement of Russia as the main actor through which Asian and European exchange transit.

Conclusion:

After a year of sustained demonstrations, Georgia appears caught between two dynamics: a reinforcement of state’s control justified through the discourse of foreign influence and sovereignty, and a resilient and strong pro-European mobilisation within the society.  Moscow continues to reinforce its leverages over the country through its ruling political party, amplified by the unresolved status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as well as a greater competition over black sea connectivity. Nevertheless, the question for the upcoming month remains whether the government will listen to the people on the streets and maintain pluralism or not. 

One thing remains certain for the people: Georgia’s future is European!