Türkiye, a new pillar of the European rearmament?

Two flags side by side against a clear sky: the red Turkish flag with a white star and crescent, and the blue EU flag with yellow stars.

From Mali and Niger to Ukraine, Turkish drones have become a symbol of Ankara’s growing strategic influence in the world. Behind their success lies a defense industry that has turned Turkey’s diplomatic assertiveness into a major asset. Mark Rutte’s visit to Ankara on 21-22 April also confirmed, using his words, that Türkiye now matters more than ever in Europe’s defense landscape. Adding to a growing and more powerful military industry, it now seems that Ankara could take advantage of its NATO membership and further reinforce its defense industry by capitalizing on European fears born from the war in Ukraine. In addition, the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration seems to further reinforce Europe’s defense needs, thereby forcing European countries to seek alternatives, which would also benefit Ankara.

By pushing European countries to do more for NATO, while diminishing its investments in it, the USA has created an ideal occasion for Ankara to become an important security provider on the old continent. In the past year, Türkiye has reinforced its partnerships in Europe, with a joint venture with an Italian Defense company, the selling of a Corvette to Romania, or the attribution by 35 countries to a maritime leadership once a cease-fire will be effective in Ukraine.

Türkiye and its “Drone diplomacy”

In the past decade, Ankara has benefited from the growth of its defense industry, particularly its drone sector, which — according to Turkish sources — accounted for up to 65% of the global UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) market by the end of 2024. This strong position is largely explained by the success of Turkish drones in multiple conflict zones (Sahel, Caucasus, Ukraine) where they have been tested and validated in combat conditions. As a result, Türkiye has consolidated its reputation as a reliable drone supplier on the international stage, while capitalizing on growing global insecurity to actively reinforce its diplomatic ties and its strategic relevance.

The uncertainties surrounding the American involvement in NATO as well as the recent tensions between European powers on joint defense programs could also possibly benefit Ankara’s drone diplomacy, as Recep Tayyip Erdogan recalled the importance of Türkiye for European security. In this sense, Ankara continues to pursue its aggressive diplomacy, leveraging security dynamics and a deteriorating international environment to strengthen its geopolitical positioning. However, this strategy may encounter political limits, as it remains dependent on conflict-prone regions.

Turkiye’s place in Europe’s defense architecture

Ankara’s participation in multiple summits in the past year has shown Türkiye’s intention to reinforce its position as an important NATO and European ally. In this sense, its strategic position in the black sea enabled it to fully integrate Europe’s security configuration, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine. Moreover, since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, European countries have shown a clear willingness to rearm — though not at the same rhythm nor with the same priorities — and Türkiye could help meet that need through their drones, ammunition or co-production of military material. Nevertheless, Cyprus and Greece continue to perceive Ankara as a threat to their territorial integrity due to historical tensions on sea borders and the Turkish enclave in Northern Cyprus, which could cause some problems for Turkish diplomacy in Europe.

This ambivalence explains why Ankara’s integration into the European security strategy seems to be both attractive and delicate. On the one hand, Türkiye’s position between Europe and Asia anchors NATO’s flank and offers serious project capabilities that cannot be ignored. Thus, Turkish capabilities should not be considered as a mere supplement to NATO’s defense but rather as an important asset and part of the European's security strategy. On the other hand, Ankara’s authoritarian drift, assertive foreign policy and unresolved disputes with Greece and Cyprus negatively impact its relations with European powers.

Conclusion:

Ultimately, Türkiye’s growing role in European defense reflects a broader geopolitical dynamic. Faced with the war in Ukraine and the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration, Ankara has managed to turn its defense industry into an influential geopolitical tool. Yet Europe’s rapprochement with Türkiye should not be understood as straightforward. Ankara remains a difficult ally, valued for its capabilities and strategic position, but constrained by political tensions and mistrust. To sum up, Türkiye is not merely exporting drones; it has turned military and industrial success into major diplomatic leverage at a time when Europe is seeking new partnerships but remains limited by political tensions.