Venezuela’s Shocking New Reality

Several countries of Latin America have been at the other end of regime change instigated by the United States. The last time regime change like this happened was when the United States arrested Manuel Noriega, the former dictator of Panama. Yesterday’s large-scale strike on Caracas as well as the capture of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife has sent shockwaves throughout the world. The reasoning and the seizure of power in the region have become clearer over the last 24 hours but further analysis is needed to understand how we got here.

Donald Trump has long seen Venezuela as an adversary, which goes back to his first term. In 2020, the United States indicted Maduro for narco-terrorism and international cocaine trafficking conspiracy. This has laid much of the basis for attacking small boats in the Caribbean for the last several months. As of Dec. 31, the NYTimes estimates that at least 115 people had been killed in 35 boat strikes since Sept. 2, 2025. These attacks not only affected Venezuela but have also increased the strained relationship between the US and Colombia. It has been reported that Colombian boats have been caught up in these airstrikes. Before yesterday’s attack, Trump warned that President Petro needs to “watch his ass” over the drug shipments that are heading for the US. Looking at what has just happened to their neighbours, this threat will likely be taken much more seriously.

Drug trafficking has been the main focus of Venezuela but the underlying instability of imposing regime change will likely destabilise how most of the world views the U.S. As the home of the largest deposit of oil in the world, Venezuela’s reserves are now available to U.S. companies to rebuild the oil industry that has been sanctioned by the West for decades. The countries that used to benefit from cheap oil from Venezuela will likely now be cut off from access. In December, the U.S. seized sanctioned oil tankers believed to be “for its alleged role in an oil smuggling network that helped fund the Iranian military and its proxies in the region.” China is also a major recipient of Venezuela's oil with an estimate of 600,000 barrels of oil to maintain energy independence. As a country that is willing to skirt U.S. sanctions, this will likely impact their energy sector. With yesterday’s public address from the White House, the U.S. is now in control of Venezuela’s oil industry and Trump has stated that:

"We're going to rebuild the oil infrastructure, which will cost billions of dollars, it will be paid for by the oil companies directly. And we're going to get the oil flowing the way it should be,"

Surely the U.S. oil companies who have been lobbying for years to work again in Venezuela are happy to hear plans like this from the White House.

China and Russia have increased their presence in Latin America for many years now. Developing trade relationships and boosting military security are some of the advantages of having friendly ties with China and Russia. It seems that the Trump Administration has determined that they are uneasy about the power dynamics of their influence in the western hemisphere. Making an example out of Venezuela would be a significant target as there are critical raw materials and well-disliked leader available to flex American power. It is also undeniable that the actions taken by the U.S. flout international law, jeopardises state sovereignty, and threatens stability throughout the region. There are still many unknowns of how “Operation Absolute Resolve” will continue to reverberate now that the U.S. will be running Venezuela as there is no clear outline of how this will happen. What is clear from the Russian and Chinese governments through their statements is that Venezuela does not have as close of friends as they thought.