A Realist Perspective: Why Great Powers recognise Palestine but not Taiwan

Traditional great powers such as the United Kingdom and France dropped a bombshell by formally recognising Palestine, a move soon followed by announcements from Australia, Canada, and Portugal in September, “to keep alive the possibility of peace and a two-state solution”, as said by the UK’s PM Keir Starmer in a video statement on X. Similarly, some called the move a hypocrisy while comparing it to the struggle of Taiwan (ROC). This short article will examine the recognition through a Realist lens and then narrow the focus to its relationship with identity politics.

It is commonly understood that realism emphases the power dynamic play which maximise one’s survival rate in the anarchic world. Recognition of Palestine carries a lower cost than that of Taiwan, given the potential for conflict with the respective opposing states. According to the UK’s Department for International Trade, the country’s total trade amounted to £52 million with Palestine as of the first quarter of 2025, compared with approximately £5.8 billion with Israel, £9.5 billion with Taiwan, and £99.7 billion with China. Recognition for Palestinian state might face disagreement from The United States and Israel. “One of our few disagreements,” Trump casually accepted the recognition. Needless to say, the UK is unlikely to sacrifice China, its third-largest overall trading partner, for recognition for Taiwan. And of course, the unneglectable Chinese global economic and military influence. 

Francis Fukuyama argues that many Muslims displayed a kind of anti Semitism that Europe had been vigilant in suppressing since the end of World War II, as a result of the bitter Israeli-Palestinian conflict. As the vast Muslim community dissatisfaction pro-Palestinian movements grow and taken on the street. The shift of Starmer’s diplomacy stand can also been seen as a reaction to the domestic pro-Palestinian movements and vast Muslim community dissatisfaction across the country, so as France. In comparison, Taiwan’s diaspora community might not be as expressive and influential. 

Former UK PM Boris Johnson reckoned that Taiwan has a better claim to statehood than Palestine, urged the West to increase economic and diplomatic ties with the de facto state. Yes, Taiwan fulfills the factors of the Montevideo Convention perfectly, except for formal foreign ties, indeed has greater validity to become a state. Will the recognition for Taiwan change the economic interaction with the West? The answer is - No. In fact, recognition could reduce Taiwan’s incentive to pursue closer ties with the West. In 2025, Taiwan’s GDP per capita surpassed South Korea for the first time in 22 years. In attribution to the accelerating exports in semiconductors and electronic goods, with infamous industry leads TSMC, GlobalWafers, and etc. The island state is establishing themselves into a global power chips plant with their technological advancement by building factories and design centres in Germany, and in Italy. A potential security alliance could emerge with the surge in Taiwanese drone exports to the EU in an endeavor to build a supply chain free from China tech. For Taiwan, economic interests are certainly important, for the sake of (bargaining) power and survival of the statehood, the desire for recognition is undoubtedly a major driving force behind its efforts to promote a positive international image. For the EU countries, following the model of the U.S.  Taiwan Relations Act, deploying diplomacy and signing MoU with Taiwan, whilst following the sensitive neighbour’s one China policy, is a perfect status quo. 

In prevention of fragmentation, liberal democracies tend to recognise a state based on the severity of destruction and injustice it has suffered. Reports indicates that, the recognition of Palestine comes after 2 years of endurance of genocide, starvation, killing of journalist and children, approximately 10% cut off of Gaza’s population. Golda Meir moved to Palestine in 1921, continued her Zionist activism, and waited for 27 years to see the establishment of Israel. South Sudan experienced bloody civil wars and humanitarian crises before sovereignty gained. Apparently, a thriving and energetic Taiwan does not fulfill the image of victimization in history. 

Must a state be completely destroyed in order to gain recognition? Fukuyama writes that the struggle for recognition is a part of a human being’s soul — a demand to be respected on an equal basis with others. Yet the liberal world order has not benefited everyone; instead has deepened inequality.