The Thailand - Cambodia Flare-Up Explained
- Espen Kjønø
- 7 days ago
- 3 min read
In early December 2025, one of Southeast Asia’s most persistent territorial disputes surged into intense armed conflict, as Thailand and Cambodia exchanged artillery fire, airstrikes and rocket attacks along their shared border. This renewed violence has killed dozens of soldiers and civilians, as well as displacing thousands of people, and drawn urgent calls from regional and global powers for a ceasefire. Despite ongoing talks meant to halt the hostilities, and a peace deal brokered by Donald Trump earlier this year, the conflict has shown little sign of immediate de-escalation.
Historical background:
The roots of this conflict go back more than a century, to colonial-era demarcations made by French administrators when Cambodia was a part of French Indochina and Thailand remained independent. France occupied Cambodia until 1953, and the French administrators mapped the 817km land border between today's Cambodia and Thailand. These maps, often inconsistent and vague, became the basis for the skirmishes between these two countries in large stretches of territory claimed by both sides.
One of the most fiercely contested sites is the 11th century Hindu temple Preah Vihear (Cambodian), or Khao Phra (Thai) which both countries claim. In 1962 the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that the temple itself belongs to Cambodia. Despite this, disputes linger over the surrounding land and access routes. In the decades since, these overlapping claims have periodically erupted into violence, fueled by nationalist fervor and competing narratives about heritage and sovereignty
Triggers for Renewed Violence in 2025:
There are several political factors that have led to the escalation in the region in 2025. One of them is the domestic political competition and elite power struggles, especially in Thailand. In Thailand, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s administration faced political turmoil after a leaked phone call with Cambodia’s former leader triggered a crisis for the administration and her suspension, enabling rival factions to adopt a more hardline stance on the border issue. This domestic competition made compromise more difficult and encouraged politicians to appeal to nationalist sentiment.
Another factor is how international geopolitical dynamics have played into the domestic political calculation. While external powers such as China and the United States have engaged with both sides, applying pressure or offering mediation. At the same time political leaders on both sides have leaned into nationalist rhetoric to mobilize public support, portraying themselves as strong defenders of national sovereignty, thus making compromises between the two parties harder.
The repeated diplomatic breakdowns and fragile ceasefires between Thailand and Cambodia have also created a cycle of mistrust between the two administrations, the most recent being the October 2025 Kuala Lumpur Peace Accord brokered by Donald Trump and the United States. The attempts at a lasting ceasefire have failed to address core issues, and both sides accused each other of violations, eroding faith in negotiated solutions.
Geopolitical Consequences:
The clashes between Thailand and Cambodia go beyond a bilateral boundary dispute; they can potentially carry wider geopolitical ramifications. Some of them being:
ASEAN Cohesion Under Strain:
The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia poses a serious challenge to ASEAN’s principle of non-interference and its ability to prevent armed conflict among the member states.
Economic Disruption:
The border closures between Thailand and Cambodia have slashed trade flows, disrupting supply chains, as well as hitting the tourism industry in both countries.
Security Spiral Risk.
If the conflict between the two countries continues to escalate, there is a real danger that it could widen beyond localized border skirmishes into a more prolonged confrontation, with risks of spill-over effects on regional stability.
Conclusion
The December 2025 flare-up between Thailand and Cambodia underscores how historical disputes, nationalist politics, and fragile peace mechanisms can trigger modern warfare, even between neighbors within an integrated regional framework. The humanitarian cost, coupled with significant economic and geopolitical stakes, makes finding a lasting resolution urgent — not only for Bangkok and Phnom Penh, but for ASEAN and the wider international community.
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