Japan-China Rift over Taiwan underscores Asia’s Ukraine Moment

On November 7, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi responded to a question from an opposition lawmaker, stating that 'a contingency in Taiwan is a contingency for Japan.' Most importantly, she warned that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would pose an 'existential threat' to Japan. As a result, Japan’s Self-Defense Forces would need to conduct 'collective defense' operations alongside its allies. The speech enraged China and set off a chain of reactions. The strong rebuttal and escalations suggest that Japan has a much higher chance to be attacked by China, making the latter “the Ukraine of Asia”. 

Reason one: the cruel fact that the nature of Taiwan (ROC) and Japan is different. The former is a prosperous de facto state whilst the latter is a robust de jure state. The Russian-Ukraine scenario is a war between two sovereign countries. Making it equivalent in the situation of Asia, the rival would be Japan and China (PRC). According to the rules of the international society. In China’s letter to the UN, they wrote, “Taiwan is China’s "sacred territory" and that resolving the Taiwan question is solely for the Chinese people, allowing no external interference”. Unfortunately they were right as the UN is not likely to change the set rigid terms. 

A decision to fire at Japan would be far easier than one to fire at Taiwan. Chinese netizens jokingly said in the comment section of the hot news, “when Taiwanese say ‘no, don’t attack,’ in Mandarin, it might stab my heart for a bit, but hearing Japanese yelling for help? It sounds nice to me.” Chinese propaganda, modern pop culture and state media have continued to foster widespread anti-Japanese sentiment from the war. Seemingly, 80 years have gone by, and with a growing neighbor next door, the Japanese desire normalization of their nation - a normal army just like the other sovereign countries. Takaichi’s statement is an elaboration of her predecessors, the most popular former PM Junichiro Koizumi, former deputy PM, now LDP’s supreme advisor Taro Aso, and the late PM Shinzo Abe, who have said Japan “would have to defend Taiwan” in case of emergency. China’s strong rebuttal may have actually helped Japan move closer to its goal.

Reason three: China’s invasion of Taiwan is in fact an existential crisis to Japan. China might be the dominant in terms of land mass (9,596,961 km²  to Japan’s 377,975 km²). But interestingly, Japan’s EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone) is larger than China’s (4.47 million km² to China’s 3.1 million km²) as Japan has many islands extending its maritime claims into the Pacific. If China invades Taiwan, Japan’s EEZ close to the Taiwan Strait could be endangered.

Map retrieved from the official website of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government

Eighty years have passed. The then-underdeveloped China has grown into a dominant power in the Eastern Hemisphere, constantly flexing their military muscle in the area. Japan, once the strongest Asian country whose fame reached the Western world during the Great War, now seeks to reclaim its former crown. Old grudges and new enmities have been brewing a war. Yet we do not know what form it will take—it could be a cold war or a hot war.