Are we seeing a new realignment in South Asian Geopolitics?

Pakistan and the Taliban has had relatively good relations for years. Pakistan has since Taliban came back to power in 2021 assumed that Taliban would ultimately act as a counterbalance against India. Even before Taliban returned to power, Taliban still had influence in Southern Afghanistan, and Pakistan needed to make sure that that Taliban would not be supporting and exporting terror groups from Afghanistan to Pakistan, notably Pakistani Taliban or (TTP). Who has waged a violent insurgency against the Pakistani state since 2007, especially in Baluchistan in the southwestern region of Pakistan. When Taliban did return to power, Pakistani officials did expect Taliban to repay them for their support of Taliban in the past by cracking down on terror groups operating in Afghanistan including the TTP. However, that has not happened. Taliban has let the TTP continue to operate inside Pakistan. Pakistani officials has also accused Afghanistan of providing safe haven for other terrorist groups like the Baloch Liberation Front, a Baloch separatist group that has staged a number of attacks inside of Pakistan In recent years.

Tensions between the long contested border of the so-called Durand Line between Afghanistan and Pakistan erupted in early October 2025, the worst clashes between the two countries since 2021. The governments of both sides confirming military actions against the other. However, both countries are reporting vastly different numbers of killed and injured. At the heart of the flare-up lies Pakistan’s accusation that militaries, including the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), are using Afghan territory as a safe haven to launch terrorist attacks inside of Afghanistan’s neighbour Pakistan. However, the Taliban regime, denies that it allows its lands to be used for strikes against Pakistan. 

The cease-fire deal:

On 19^th of October 2025, Afghanistan and Pakistan formally agreed to an immediate cease-fire during talks held in Doha, Qatar. Under the deal: 

• Both sides commit to stop hostile actions, including cross-border attacks, and to refrain from supporting groups that strike at the other’s sovereignty or infrastructure.

• Pakistan’s defence minister emphasised that the truce “hinges” on Afghanistan preventing militant attacks emanating from its territory.

• A follow-up meeting is scheduled for 25 October in Istanbul to establish a monitoring mechanism and verify implementation of the truce

Even though the cease-fire is considered as fragile, the deal does consist of positive steps for stability between the two countries. The deal depends on the implementation of mutual trust, and whether the underlying grievances (militant sanctuaries, border demarcation disputes, regional alliances) are addressed.) 

Afghanistan’s pivot towards India

Recently India announced the upgrade of its diplomatic mission in Kabul, amid the tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Afghanistan’s Taliban leadership signaled during a visit to New Delhi that India is a “significant regional and economic partner”, while reaffirming that Afghan territory will not be used to target other countries.” For Pakistan, this recalibration is worrying. Historically Islamabad regarded Afghanistan as a part of its strategic depth and sphere of influence. Not only during the recent Talibani government of Afghanistan, but also its previous regime. The recent pivot from Kabul towards India signals a new realignment in South Asian geopolitics.

The recent ceasefire-deal between Pakistan and Afghanistan will prove whether or not the Talibani government are able/ willing to restrain groups attacking Pakistan. Meanwhile, Pakistan needs to respond to the fact that Afghanistan is now considering to change from being under the influence of Pakistan towards growing its ties to India.