Could the Trump peace plan lead to the end of Netanyahu’s government?

The conflict between Israel and Hamas remains one of the most destabilizing conflicts in the Middle East in over a decade. Following the attacks on October 7^th, 2023, by Hamas, which resulted in the deaths of over 1200 Israelis as well as the abduction of more than 200 hostages, the Israeli government began a full-scale military campaign in the Gaza Strip. Since then, the conflict has resulted in massive destruction. Tens of thousands of Palestinians casualties, the displacements of more than a million Gazans, and the near-total collapse of civilian infrastructure in Gaza.

In the last two years the military objective of the Israeli government has been to eliminate Hamas as both a political and military entity in the Gaza strip. Even though significant portions of Hamas’s command structure has been reduced, Hamas still retains influence in the Gaza Strip. 

At the same time, Israel is under intensifying diplomatic and economic pressure from key international actors. European states, the United States and several Arab states have increasingly criticized the humanitarian toll of the conflict as well as pressured Netanyahu’s government when it comes to negotiating a ceasefire between the parties. 

The peace plan:

In late September 2025, US president, Donald Trump introduced a 20-point peace plan in order to stop the conflict in Gaza. This plan centers on a phased ceasefire, the demilitarization of Gaza, humanitarian recovery as well as a reconstruction of the governance within the Gaza strip. Its key elements include:

• An immediate ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal: A conditional end of hostilities, including the withdrawal of Israeli Defence Forces, where Israeli forces will see it retain control of roughly 53 percent of Gaza. 

• Hostage – prisoner exchange: An immediate return of all 48 Israeli hostages in exchange for the release of approximately 2000 Palestinian prisoners. 

• Demilitarization of Hamas: The dismantling of all paramilitary Infrastructure in Gaza, where Hamas will be excluded from any future political roles. However, Hamas has previously refused to lay down its weapons, stating that this would only happen once a Palestinian state has been established. 

• Transitional Governance Framework: The creation of a temporary technocratic Palestinian governance body in Gaza, supervised by a “Board of Peace”, chaired by U.S. President Trump, alongside former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair.

  
  

The peace plan fails to address broader issues when it comes to the future of the West Bank, East Jerusalem, or Palestinian statehood. Even though the plan does not address the broader final-state issues, the plan is viewed as a possible prelude to renewed multilateral negotiations. The 10^th of October, this is exactly what happened, when Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of a ceasefire and hostage release deal, thus paving the way for a possible end to the conflict in Gaza.

Could the peace plan lead to the end of Netanyahu’s government?

From a domestic political standpoint, the Trump peace proposal presents an acute existential threat to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s governing coalition. The Coalition partners to Netanyahu’s Likud Party, the Religious Zionist party (led by Bezalel Smotrich) and Otzma Yehudit (led by Itamar Ben-Gvir) have openly threatened to bring down the government if Nethanyahu accepts the peace plan. Both Smotrich and Ben-Gvir have stated that there should be no negotiation of a ceasefire with Hamas until Hamas is “fully defeated”, no international control over Gaza as well as no step toward Palestinian sovereignty. Smotrich and Ben-Gvir have also issued public ultimatums indicating they will leave the coalition if Nethanyahu agrees to the Trump plan. Given the razor-thin parliamentary majority Netanyahu currently commands, even the departure of one or two parties would collapse his government and likely trigger early elections. Since these ultimatums, both Ben-Gvir and Smotrich seem to have changed their opinions, stating that they would not bring down the government amid progress in talks over the Trump Plan – at least not for the time being. 

The coalition between Likud, the Religious Zionism party and Otzma Yehud still could fracture immediately. If either Ben-Gvir or Smotrich decides to leave the coalition, Nethanyahu would lose his majority in the Knesset and would either need to step down, call new elections, or attempt to form a new unity government with centrist opposition parties like Benny Gantz’s National Unity faction. However, none of these paths seems politically safe for the Prime Minister.

Furthermore, Netanyahu’s broader political capital is at a historic low. The Prime minister has been on trial since 2020 on various corruption charges that could potentially lead to up to 10 years of jail time. Additionally, Netanyahu’s approval rating has sharply declined, and his credibility as the Prime Minister that can keep Israel secure has been undermined by the security failures that allowed the October 7 attacks to take place, as well as the ongoing judicial reform controversy that polarized Israeli society in 2023. Netanyahu’s war-time leadership once shielded him from his legal troubles and widespread protests over his judicial overhaul. But the very plan that could end the war may also strip him of that shield.

In summary, acceptance of the deal could unravel his coalition and end his premiership, while rejection could isolate Israel diplomatically and prolong a costly and unpopular war. The Trump deal may be the closest thing yet to peace in Gaza. However, for Netanyahu, it simultaneously poses a grave political risk and could lead to the end of Netanyahu's government.