Balochistan: What Makes a State?

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Introduction:

On 11 August 2026, Baloch separatist groups celebrate what they call Balochistan Independence Day, proclaiming Balochistan as an independent state from Pakistan and appealing for international support. The date carries historical weight: separatists claim that “Balochistan declared independence on August 11, 1947, shortly before the partition of British India”. Almost 80 years later, however, Balochistan not only remains part of Pakistan, but also its largest province. As is the case with many separatist entities, declaring independence does not neatly convert into becoming a recognised, sovereign state. So, what actually constitutes a state, and does Balochistan meet the necessary criteria?

Montevideo Convention:

The Montevideo Convention of 1933 provides the widely accepted four characteristics of what constitutes a state: a permanent population, a defined territory, a government, and the capacity to enter into relations with other states.

1. Permanent population - Yes.

Balochistan has a substantial permanent population. Pakistan's latest census in 2023 recorded approximately 14.9 million living in the province.

2. Defined territory - Yes, but contested.

As Pakistan’s largest province, Balochistan occupies a clearly identifiable territory of 347,190 square kilometres, according to the same Pakistani census. However, having identifiable territory does not necessarily translate into Balochistan exercising sovereign control over it. In reality, sovereign control over the territory rests with the Pakistani government. Furthermore, the boundaries of a hypothetical independent Balochistan would themselves be contested as the broader Baloch region extends into Iran and Afghanistan.

3. Government - No.

Balochistan's current claim to statehood is impeded by its lack of an independent government. Currently, it does have a provincial government; however, this operates under the federal constitutional system of Pakistan. Armed separatist organisations including the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) have conducted armed campaigns against the Pakistani state and at times have exercised limited territorial control. However, they currently do not have the capacity to exercise stable governmental authority separate from Pakistan.

4. Capacity to enter relations with other states - No.

Balochistan does not independently maintain diplomatic relations with other states; these are conducted on its behalf by Pakistan. However, Baloch separatists have pursued international support from other actors, including India. As Pakistan’s main geopolitical rival, India has a strategic interest in developments that put pressure on Islamabad, including Baloch separatism. Indian Prime Minister Modi has previously raised the issue of Balochistan. However, this does not result in diplomatic recognition of Balochistan as an independent state.

Therefore, according to the criteria outlined in the Montevideo Convention, Balochistan does not currently meet the conventional requirements of a state. It does indeed have a permanent population and defined territory but lacks an independent government and the capacity to act internationally as a sovereign state.

Conclusion:

Could Balochistan become a state? Technically, in the future, yes. It would not be impossible, provided it establishes effective institutions, exercises control over its territory and develops the ability to conduct external relations. Of course, international recognition is also crucial to the path towards statehood, even though it is not one of the four criteria outlined in the convention. 

Should Balochistan become a state? That is a much more difficult political and legal question to answer. Arriving to a conclusion to this question would require balancing the Baloch people’s right to self-determination with Pakistan’s right to territorial integrity. It must also be asked whether Balochistan’s population as a whole wishes to determine its own future, or if they would rather remain part of Pakistan. The issue is determining whether the separatist movement represents the wishes of the wider population of Balochistan, rather than the most organised or most visible political actors in the province. The political and economic viability of an independent Balochistan would also need to be considered, given the issues it could face as a newly independent state.

Ultimately, Balochistan has some of the ingredients of a state, but not statehood itself. Its Independence Day highlights a fundamental distinction in geopolitics: a state can be declared in words long before it exists in practice.