Energy, Power, and the Return of Hard Geopolitics

“Everything that exists requires energy to create and to operate—not some things, everything,” said energy analysis expert Mark P. Mills back in 2024. That remark may sound evident but it keeps returning to my mind in recent months with every new headline that piles up: Russian strikes on Ukrainian power stations, oil seizures and sanctions, a major blackout in Berlin, U.S. military action linked to Venezuela’s energy sector, and renewed American interest in acquiring Greenland. At first glance, these events appear disconnected, just regional crises happening, but in reality, they are manifestations of the same underlying shift. Energy security has moved from the background of political and public discussion to its very core.

For years, energy was largely invisible to the public. Lights turned on, trains ran, homes were heated, and industries functioned with little thought given to the systems making this possible. Energy, just like air, is noticed only when it’s absent. Political debates focused mostly on prices, climate impact, or market efficiency, while energy itself was treated as a technical or economic issue rather than a strategic one.

Energy systems are now exposed as fragile, politicized, and deeply contested. Blackouts are no longer confined to fragile states or distant regions; they now affect major European capitals. Power grids, refineries, and pipelines are no longer protected civilian infrastructure but explicit military targets. Governments prefer not to rely on energy markets alone, they intervene directly which changes the way supply chains work and highlights strategic priorities. Energy security has decisively entered the realm of high politics in the search of a new understanding of power, resilience, and strategic autonomy. Geopolitical leverage, a strategic vulnerability, and even serves as justification for forceful action. Understanding contemporary geopolitics is also understanding energy. 

Ukraine offers the clearest illustration of this transformation. Russia’s sustained campaign against Ukrainian electricity generation, transmission networks, and heating infrastructure has treated energy not as collateral damage, but as a primary battlefield. Power outages, emergency imports, and constant repairs under fire have turned energy management into a form of civil defense. At the same time, Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries and fuel logistics reveal the logic in reverse: degrading the energy system of the enemy constrains its military capacity and economic endurance. Energy is here both target and weapon, erasing the line between civilian infrastructure and military assets. 

A different form of energy statecraft can be evidenced in Venezuela. Rather than relying solely on sanctions to isolate Caracas, the United States sought the control of Venezuela’s energy sector to re-shape its governance and integrate its oil sector under specific political conditions. This is a very telling shift from restriction to control. Energy resources are no longer only restricted, they are forcefully repositioned to stabilize markets, influence political outcomes, and reinforce geopolitical leverage. 

It is within this broader context that renewed American interest in Greenland must be understood too. President Donald Trump’s intentions to acquire the island is often dismissed as eccentric or crazy. Viewed through the lens of energy security, though, it seems far more rational. Greenland is not primarily about oil or gas; it is about critical minerals, geography, and future energy systems. Its deposits of rare earths and other strategic materials are essential for renewable technologies, batteries, electric vehicles, and modern grid infrastructure. It is true that turning these resources into supply will take years, but access itself does matter. Privileged control would reduce dependence -eventually- on Chinese-dominated processing chains, strengthen U.S. positioning in the Arctic as new routes open, and secure materials not for today’s energy systems, but for the future. 

Ukraine, Venezuela, and Greenland follow the same strategic pattern. Energy security is not only about ensuring supply but also about shaping the conditions and dynamics under which supply is possible. Territory, processing capacity, transport routes, and political alignment now matter as much as production itself. The decisive battles are increasingly fought over minerals, infrastructure, and access even before energy reaches consumers or markets.

Only these couple of recent events reveal a central reality of the contemporary international system. Energy security has become a form of geopolitical positioning. States more than trying to avoid disruption rather  engineer leverage, exploiting chokepoints, vulnerabilities while at the same time shielding from those shocks. 

This is a shift that needs to happen for us, for the general public as well, not treat energy as a “sector” but also be conscious that it is an instrument of power. The decisive advantage in the coming decade will not belong to those with the cheapest energy or the largest reserves, but to those whose systems, grids, supply chains, alliances, and governance, deter or at least absorb shocks without political and economic paralysis because energy security is no longer about keeping the lights on, it is about ensuring that when the lights flicker the state remains in control.

References

Atlantic Council. (2025). Geopolitics & energy security. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/issue/geopolitics-energy-security/

International Energy Agency. (2025, June 17). Amid rising geopolitical strains, oil markets face new uncertainties as the drivers of supply and demand growth shift [News release]. https://www.iea.org/news/amid-rising-geopolitical-strains-oil-markets-face-new-uncertainties-as-the-drivers-of-supply-and-demand-growth-shift

KPMG International. (2025). Top geopolitical risks 2025: Energy insights. https://kpmg.com/xx/en/our-insights/risk-and-regulation/top-risks-forecast/energy.html

Modern Diplomacy. (2025, February 17). The geopolitics of energy: How oil and gas shape diplomacy (S. Ahmed, Author). https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/02/17/the-geopolitics-of-energy-how-oil-and-gas-shape-diplomacy/

J.P. Morgan. (2025, September 16). Climate Intuition: Power Rewired: The new map of energy and geopolitics. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/sustainability/climate/power-rewired-energy-and-geopolitics