Escalating Tensions in the Middle East: Israel and the US Attack Iran

Just before 9:00am in Iran, Operation Epic Fury and Roaring Lion was launched on military targets in the cities of Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah. The Trump administration and Israel conducted their strikes to help push Iranians to overthrow their country and attack regime leadership. Some of the sites that were targeted were the residences of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, as well as other major Iranian military and political figures. In the evening of 28 February, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated in an NBC News interview that the country had lost “a few commanders,” but also insisted no senior officials were killed in the attacks. An hour and a half after the initial strikes, President Donald Trump released an 8-minute video announcing America had launched “major combat operations in Iran.” He also stated that it would be “a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests.” Later that night, Iran state media confirmed that Khamenei was killed in his office during the US-Israeli airstrikes. There are also reports from the BBC that 40 Iranian officials were also killed in the strikes.

Shortly afterward, Iran returned with strikes of their own using ballistic missiles in the direction of not only Israel, but also American military bases throughout the region.  Eliza Gkritsi from Politico.eu reported that the attacks have spilled over into the Gulf region. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have all been targeted by Iran’s counterattacks after the strikes by the U.S. and Israel. Qatar and the United Arab Emirates said that they intercepted Iranian missiles and Kuwait said its army had engaged missiles in its airspace. The Saudi Foreign Ministry also confirmed that Iran targeted Riyadh as well as the kingdom’s eastern region, but noted that the attacks were repelled. US Central Command, which oversees operations in the region stated that “there have been no reports of US casualties or combat-related injuries. Damage to US installations was minimal and has not impacted operations.” Due to the retaliatory Iranian missile and drone attacks, commercial airlines have suspended flights across the region and “ship-tracking data suggests that oil tankers are starting to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for one-third of the world’s seaborne crude. Iran appears to be moving to close it.”

A crucial question that has emerged from this conflict is what will happen when Western financial markets open on Monday? Tommy Stubbington from FT.com stated that “Stock markets will largely take their cues from energy prices. When oil reopened after the US bombed Iran last June — also at the weekend — crude spiked more than 5 per cent as markets reopened, before plunging as traders decided the war would quickly de-escalate.” Malcolm Moore and Verity Ratcliffe also reported from the Financial Times that Opec+ have scheduled a meeting for Sunday 1 March to announce an increase in oil barrel output, but they also quoted Bob McNally, at Rapidan Energy, who said “whatever Opec+ decides to do, it would be ‘dwarfed by the question’ of whether the US can stop Iran from attacking energy infrastructure and halting crude exports from the region.” 

Western and Gulf allies to Israel and the United States have all appealed to de-escalate and return to diplomacy. Some European leaders have also stated that they were not informed prior to the strike as well as determined to restart negotiations with Iran. The E3 Joint Leaders released a  statement on Iran by President Emmanuel Macron, Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer:

"France, Germany and the United Kingdom have consistently urged the Iranian regime to end Iran's nuclear program, curb its ballistic missile program, refrain from its destabilizing activity in the region and our homelands, and to cease the appalling violence and repression against its own people.

We did not participate in these strikes, but are in close contact with our international partners, including the United States, Israel, and partners in the region. We reiterate our commitment to regional stability and to the protection of civilian life.

We condemn Iranian attacks on countries in the region in the strongest terms. Iran must refrain from indiscriminate military strikes. We call for a resumption of negotiations and urge the Iranian leadership to seek a negotiated solution. Ultimately, the Iranian people must be allowed to determine their future."

Russia has also released a statement about the attack saying “it was a ‘reckless move’ and that ‘the attacks are once again being carried out under the guise of a renewed negotiation process,’ its foreign ministry said, referring to the US-Iran nuclear talks which took place last week. The Kremlin's statement also called on the international community to assess what it called ‘irresponsible actions aimed at undermining peace, stability, and security’ in the region.” It is important to note here that Russia is a key ally to Iran but there appears to be no military intervention or assistance heading toward Iran. Other allies like Venezuela and Syria are familiar with Russian symbolic support.

24 hours after the initial strike, there is no foreseeable pathway of how this conflict will end. Continued strikes around the Middle East and the closure of airspace and the Strait of Hormuz will impact the global economy as well as increase the risk of other kinds of attacks. Iran has several proxy groups that can mobilise within the region and inflame tensions. The risk of cyberattacks will escalate in the coming days. With such unpredictable actors in the mix, citizens of the world can only hope for de-escalation and restraint to avoid catastrophic consequences.