Madagascar joins the list of African Nations hit by political turmoil
- Antoine Quiquempoix
- 6 days ago
- 4 min read
What’s happening in Madagascar?
After the 2009 coup, Madagascar is once again facing political instability, as the Malgache parliament voted to depose President Andry Rajoelina. The coup occurred after a long period of contestation of the power in place, mainly led by the Madagascar youth. Starting as a protest against water and electricity shortages, the movement is now denouncing corruption and bad governance as the government remains inactive. The movement has been cracked down harshly at first, as the United Nations (UN) reported 22 persons killed during fights between opportunist groups and the police forces.
In order to calm the protests, President Rajoelina dissolved its government and asked for deeper discussions with the population. Nevertheless, the parliament remained in power and voted on the 14th of October to impeach Rajoelina, as he fled from the country. In the wake of the upheaval, Colonel Michael Randrianirina proclaimed himself interim president, and maintained a shutdown on all the institutions of the country except the national assembly.
As president Rajoelina contested the coup and refused to consider himself removed from office, the civil society and the opposition movements accepted the transition government formed by Colonel Micheal Randrianirina. In fact, it seems that the Gen-Z movement received the fall of president Rajoelina as a victory, even though the intervention of the army still raises concern amid the youth who fear the military will seize the movement to their advantage.
At the international level, the coup raises serious questions, as the African Union (AU) suspended Madagascar from its institutions because of the violation of the constitution. The organisation rejected firmly the interim government and requested the return to an elected civil government in order to retrieve democracy. In the meantime, sanctions might arise if Madagascar does not return to a civil and democratic regime. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) expressed a certain apprehension after the coup, and decided to send a delegation on the great island to facilitate the dialogue between the different parts in Madagascar.
Finally, the UN, through the Secretary General António Guterres, expressed concerns on the unconstitutional changes in the country, calling for a peaceful and democratic settlement of the situation with all stakeholders possible. Similarly, the international community declared its reserves on the coup, urging respect for democratic principles and fundamental liberties in order to avoid further bloodshed.
What are the geopolitical consequences?
Internally, the end of Rajoelina’s regime and the coup sounded like a victory for gen-Z movements, as parties were launched in the capital, Antananarivo, to celebrate “this first victory that gave us hope” as mentioned by the captain of the national rugby team. Nevertheless, it is important for the military government to observe its statement and deliver a democratic return in order to avoid future tensions with pro-democracy militants. Indeed, if the military power reinforces its position and delays a democratic return, tensions will certainly arise again across the country.
Furthermore, the interim government needs to tackle seriously the issues raised by the gen-Z movement, as the country’s economy is particularly struggling. The coup risks preventing external investors from reinforcing their presence in the country, as tourism, mines and telecommunications remain the main infrastructures to invest in. Besides, it might reduce the interest for the country not only to investors but for tourists as well, afraid of the instability in Madagascar.
On a larger scale, this coup adds to a long list of military coups that happened on the African continent over the past years. In Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Guinea, or Gabon, military coups are a tendency that the AU struggles to prevent on a continent that is consistently facing political and/or security instability, and could further diminish the confidence of the African countries in this international organisation.
As for the SADC, the coup might fragilise regional cooperation, in a region w Madagascar occupies a strategic position in the Indian Ocean, particularly rich in fish resources and important mineral resources. Therefore, tensions might arise and the coup risk to reduce, or stop regional initiatives on economic integration and maritime security.
Finally, Madagascar’s problem seems to be when will democracy be back and will the military power respect the gen-Z popular demands. This type of movement is not new, as it took back codes from the Nepalese gen-Z movements, using the same symbols, such as the pirate flag from the manga One-Piece. It is therefore not impossible to see, in a close future, rising other gen-Z movements across the African continent, where the population is particularly young and impacted by unemployment and poverty.
Conclusion:
Madagascar is facing serious political instability, and it is still unsure if the military power will enable a peaceful and democratic return in the country. This coup as well as the popular contestation of the former government shows the incapacity of governments to answer their population's needs, as Morocco and Nepal faced similar movements from their youth. Ultimately, Madagascar might face sanctions in the near future in the case the military government maintains its position in power, and denies the population’s claims, which could lead to a return of the bloodshed.
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