More Nukes in the Middle East: US-Saudi Deal

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The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is known as a leader in global petroleum reserves. In 2024, the predominately state-owned oil company Aramco had “250 billion barrels of oil equivalent, including 190.2 billion barrels of crude oil and condensate, 26.1 billion barrels of NGL and 209.8 trillion standard cubic feet (tscf) of natural gas.” Even though the country is one of the largest exporters of oil and gas in the world, they are looking to diversify their energy interests and needs. This week, a new deal was announced that the United States would build and oversee a civilian nuclear program, which could potentially open the door to uranium enrichment on its territory. The Wall Street Journal reported that the “30-year, multibillion-dollar deal gives American companies a central role in developing Saudi Arabia’s nuclear infrastructure while shutting out foreign competitors.” While investing in renewable energy for a country that is predominantly a petrostate should be seen as a step forward for sustainable development, many surrounding countries see it as a possible shift in regional power dynamics for national security.

A civilian nuclear program should not come as a surprise for the kingdom’s neighbours. In December 2006 the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which includes Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar and Oman, announced that they were commissioning a study on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. France agreed to work with them on this, and Iran pledged assistance with nuclear technology. A few months later, six of the states agreed on further exploration, in conjunction with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to cooperate on a feasibility study for a regional nuclear power and desalination programme. The Saudis would be leading the investigation but then they later decided that they would be looking into a civilian program on their own by reaching out to other countries. There were discussions with South Korea as well as China to build up the civilian nuclear program but the Saudis soon realised that they wanted the United States to proceed with their plans.

It is not unusual for the United States to cooperate with other governments on a civilian nuclear program. The New York Times explains that Section 123 of the Atomic Energy Act of 1954 lays out the rules of transfer and storage of nuclear material and the guidelines include: 

• Countries must ensure the safe transfer of nuclear material and equipment.

• They must adhere to safety standards outlined by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

• Nuclear material and equipment from the United States may not be used for military purposes or in any nuclear explosive devices.

• The United States can demand the return of the material or device if the other country detonates a nuclear explosive device or fails to meet I.A.E.A. safeguards.

• Countries must get approval before enriching or reprocessing any of the nuclear material.

• Countries cannot transfer highly enriched uranium or plutonium without advanced approval from the U.S.

The State Department leads the negotiations and submits for approval for the president as well as the director of National Intelligence. Ultimately, the deal will need congressional approval but there have been agreements in the past with other countries, such as Canada in 1955 and Singapore in December 2024. The United States also has separate agreements with China, Taiwan, the U.A.E., Russia, and Ukraine have also signed separate 123 Agreements.

The one country who has been cautiously silent on the US-Saudi deal is Israel. As a country who has not declared that it has its own nuclear program, Israel is concerned about another country in the region developing nuclear capabilities. This would bring a dramatic power shift when relations have not normalised after years of trying to come to a diplomatic agreement on the Palestinian state. This issue was not a part of the civilian nuclear agreement and the deal could fall apart because the kingdom has not joined the Abraham Accords. Relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia will continue to be strained over Palestine while the war in Gaza continues but with upcoming elections for Netanyahu, there may be some serious changes in the Middle East.