Sanae Takaichi: Japan’s Hope for a Strong Comeback?

Japan is set to hold a prime ministerial vote on the 20th, to determine if Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)’s leader Sanae Takaichi is to be the country’s first female prime minister. Even as this piece is being written, reports indicate that the Komeito Party (KM) has announced its 25-year coalition with LDP. With its 24 seats, Komeito has declared it will not back Takaichi, leaving the ruling party to rely on its own 196 votes. Still, with opposition groups—the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), and Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party; JIP) —unlikely to unite behind a single candidate, the split is unlikely to block Takaichi’s path to power. A conservative right-winger, a wartime history revisionist, an Abenomics supporter, and a Thatcher admirer — Is Takaichi merely the next short-lived prime minister, or the face of Japan’s comeback? 

The 64 years old has taken a clearly pro-Taiwan stance. Her actions speak very loud. On October 10, representatives of a Japan–Taiwan exchange delegation delivered a handwritten letter from Takaichi to President Lai Ching-te on Taiwan’s National Day. As early as April this year, while serving as Minister for Economic Security, Takaichi visited Taiwan and met Lai, emphasizing that peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait are vital to Japan’s security. Since Japan and Taiwan do not have formal diplomatic relations, she stressed the need for more practical cooperation in areas such as semiconductors, AI, quantum computing, dual-use industries, and new energy technologies, echoing former Prime Minister Abe’s position that “a Taiwan contingency is a Japanese contingency.” She has also proposed that Japan establish a “quasi-security alliance” with Taiwan and strengthen cooperation with allies in the Indo-Pacific region to counterbalance China’s influence.

A key takeaway is that Takaichi supports revising Japan’s constitution, allowing the “Self-Defense Forces“ to be renamed as the “National Defense Army,” and abolishing Article 9 of the pacifist constitution, to sort of resurgent Japanese militarism. As a result, her future moves are being closely watched. However, her decision to skip the autumn festival at Yasukuni Shrine—apparently to avoid offending China and South Korea—suggests that both Takaichi and the LDP are not pursuing a hardline “strong(wo)man” approach. Instead, they seem intent on cultivating a more moderate, centrist image of the future PM.

Despite close geography and economic interdependence, East Asia remains mired in a stalemate, scarred by historical grievances. In these ethnically homogeneous, nationalist countries, the deadlock seems all but inescapable. Whilst China is eyeing to be the super power with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), South Korea trying to silently transform its soft power into hard power, if Takaichi hopes to rescue the yen from its repeated slumps, it is vital to maintain and broaden FTAs with EU, US, alongside regional trade agreements. However, her links to neo-Nazi groups and open admiration to Hilter, if exposed in the West, could backfire on her.

Takaichi is not a feminist. Her rise to power is unrelated to gender issues; rather, it reflects the continuation of Japan’s conservative values. If she does not pursue bold, decisive reforms, she may end up as just another short-lived prime minister—though at least the Nikkei Stock Average might cheer her on.