Iran Protests Consume the Middle East

On 28 December 2025, the Iranian rial plummeted to a record low against the U.S. dollar and economic uncertainty was further inflamed when the inflation rate was reportedly 42.2 percent. Against the backdrop of deteriorating security, nationwide protests emerged across the country, which generated new threats to the oppressive regime. The tensions have been building for quite some time as prices have “risen by 35% in the past year” and there are some estimates of 18 percent of the population living below the World Bank’s poverty level. Economic security helps autocratic regimes survive but the protests in the last week shows what happens when security collapses and how it ripples across the region.

The timing of these protests have come during a significant low point for the Iranian government. Regional conflicts and disruptions have taken a huge toll on the power projection across the region. Non-state actors, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, are profoundly weakened by the attacks from Israel. The Assad regime in Syria was completely obliterated by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham. The most devastating conflict for the Iranian regime was over the summer during the 12-day war with Israel that saw extremely high tensions in the region. The assistance from the United States with bunker-buster strikes on nuclear facilities reached a tipping point and led to a ceasefire on 23 June. During this conflict, Israel attacked military bases as well as nuclear facilities and their “planes bombed at least two gas fields, a few oil fields and a car factory.” As one of the world’s highly sanctioned countries, Iran’s economy was already in a fragile state prior to these military attacks. 

With many national leaders outside the Middle East offering opinions and support to the Iranian people, the reality on the ground is much more opaque. Reliable information is difficult to obtain since Iran’s government communications blackout was instituted. With the help of satellite internet systems like Starlink, a trickle of information circumvented the digital barricades and provided estimates of three thousand people dead from the government crackdown. Reactions to the protest from western governments have included cancelled invitations to the Munich Security conference to sanctions placed on other governments who still trade with Iran. There have also been concerns from western governments that military action will be conducted. The UK has evacuated staff in Iran when the United States removed some of its own personnel from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. These signals are flaring diplomatic relations in the region that has already seen so much insecurity. 

Other Middle Eastern countries are aware of Iran’s diminished power that was wielded through non-state actor proxies. With the ability to use these groups to ensure economic transactions and security services in other territories, Iran was able to project its capacity as a strong leader in the region. The recent protests show that they are unable to provide security for its own citizens and are likely attacking its own population to quell dissent. With so much chaos in the region already and the dread of what a nuclear-armed country will do when pushed to the edge, these protests in Iran are a turning point even if the government is sufficiently successful in squashing the opposition for now.