Israel and Lebanon continue to fight amidst Iran conflict

Iran’s influence over the Middle East through proxy groups is going through a significant moment. It is difficult to imagine being bombarded by American and Israeli missiles while trying to connect with leaders from Hezbollah, who are in a similar situation being under fire from Israeli bombardments. Since Hezbollah receives monetary and munitions support from Iran, it could not have been unforeseen that the proxy group would retaliate against Israel after the killing of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli strikes. It is also important to note that rockets and drones were launched as a consequence of repeated Israeli strikes since a ceasefire ended their last war in 2024. The results of the initial strikes mean that the entire state of Lebanon is now drawn into the Middle East war after the militant group attacked Israel. Israel's retaliation has been swift. Israel has launched a ground incursion in the southern region of Lebanon and ordered troops to “take control of additional strategic positions” as it opened a new front in the Middle East war. 

Beirut and the southern suburbs have also come under fire from Israel’s attacks, which is seen as an escalation but also as a way to put pressure on the Lebanese government to fulfill the ceasefire agreement by disarming Hezbollah. There are alarming reports of their forces killing nearly 500 people, including 83 children, and forcing half a million from their homes. There are other estimates of 600 people dead and that 700,000 people have been displaced in a country that has been ravaged by regional war with an emerging humanitarian crisis. Considering how complicated Lebanese politics has been over the last several years, outright disarmament is a difficult task when trying to provide public services to the population during times of crisis. Hezbollah is not solely a terrorist group but also a political wing of the Lebanese government. Their rise to power is intertwined with the ability to provide services to the southern parts of Lebanon when the central government did not. Protection from Israeli incursions prior to current events meant using Hezbollah forces for national security. The proxy group was seen as a necessary evil until it was unable to provide the security that people needed. The Economist provided insight in the following quote: 

“Even in communities where Hizbullah could once count on support, the anger is palpable. “Foolish, irresponsible”, fumed one Shia businessman, who said he had spent the morning after Hizbullah’s attack fielding calls from people fleeing the south and seeking shelter in Beirut. “Even their own followers cannot defend this,” he added.”

Beirut is still taking baby steps, to maintain stability, by declaring Hizbullah’s military and security activities illegal, but resisted calling the group terrorists. These are stronger words than normally used by the Lebanese government but they do want to be seen as doing something. The initial ceasefire stated that “Both sides would stop attacks, and the south would be handed over to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF).” Unfortunately, there was no follow through on the ceasefire with Israel violating the ceasefire more than 10,000 times and continues to target Hezbollah targets across the country, according to United Nations peacekeepers, and killed more than 100 civilians. There is also the belief that multiple analysts told Al Jazeera that “the presence of the Israeli army in southern Lebanon would make the army’s job of disarming Hezbollah impossible, foremost in that any occupation would lead to a renewed form of resistance – be it from Hezbollah or another group.” Despite losing several long-standing Hezbollah leaders in the last couple of years and losing the support of the people, the Iran-backed proxy group is still formidable in the region. How long they are able to be an imminent threat, with its most important backer inundated with its own problems, has yet to be determined.